Chicago Sun Times film
critic Roger Ebert claims that this year is one of the easiest years to predict
the outcome of the Oscars being presented Sunday night by the Academy of Motion
Pictures Arts and Sciences. When the nominees were announced a month and a half
ago, it seemed one of the least predictable batch of nominees in years.
However, as usual the last month of near weekly awards presentations for the
finest work in film over the past year has brought a good deal of focus to the
Oscars picture. I don’t agree that it is one of the easiest years to predict. I
can remember one a couple of years ago that Ebert claimed was one of the
hardest and a record number of people out guessed him in his annual Outguess
Ebert’s Oscar Picks contest.
The last few years, I have
been very consistent in predicting between 17 to 20 out of 24 awards correctly,
with most of my misses coming in the very obscure categories. I’m not so
confident this year. I think I’ll be doing very well at 17. It wouldn’t
surprise me if I don’t do that well this year.
The main reason this is such
a tough year to predict is because such a wide variety of great movies reached
such a great amount of audiences. It has been a while since the collection of
Best Picture nominees have been seen so widely consumed by the public as they
have this year. It’s been longer since that collection of films was also such a
consistently high quality. “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Amour” are the
only two films that didn’t see a wide national release and didn’t receive good
to impressive box office numbers, although for the specialty market audience
they played to, they had very impressive numbers. Only one film strikes me as
one that doesn’t belong in terms of filmmaking quality, but it appealed to a
wide variety of audiences and I understand why.
Another reason this year is
so hard to predict is because of the sheer number of people who weren’t
nominated that many felt should’ve been. I can’t remember a year with so many
so-called “snubs.” No year can honor as many people as deserve it, but this
year there were people left off the Oscars list who won many of the other
awards. Normally, that type of recognition would ensure Oscar recognition, but
not this year. With so many that might’ve been considered front-runners left
off the Oscar nominations, it’s harder to predict what the Academy’s thinking
might be on the other nominees.
All will be revealed
tomorrow evening, however, in a show that promises to be one of the more
exciting in recent Oscar history. With one of the most unlikeliest of hosts in
Oscar history in “Family Guy” creator Seth McFarlane, and one of the most
varied field of nominees in Academy history; Oscar Night 2013 is sure to be one
filled with surprises. Here are my predictions:
Best Picture. There are always shifts in Best Picture favorites. Much of that has to
do with the political maneuvering that goes on behind the scenes in the industry,
to which the public is rarely privy. This year, the favorite seemed to shift
every week for a while, sometimes even multiple times within a week. The
political/historical thriller “Argo” was an early favorite, garnering a great
deal of buzz at the Toronto Film Festival, often a precursor to the awards
season darlings. With an earlier fall release than most of the contenders, many
felt that the spotlight shone on “Argo” too early in the awards season. Then
“Lincoln” hit and was lauded by most as Spielberg’s greatest film since
‘Schindler’s List”. Then people started talking early about how impressive “Les
Misérables” was. Then “Zero Dark Thirty” got great word of mouth on its limited
opening before the backlash against its depiction of torture began. Then
“Django Unchained” stirred up controversy, which somehow always works in QT’s
favor. Then the awards were announced and “Amour” was a surprise nominee that
showed up everywhere. Perhaps it could be one of the rare foreign language
films to take the top award. Then, more and more people started getting out to
see the beautifully impressive “Life of Pi”. All the while, “Silver Linings
Playbook” kept popping its head up as a crowd-pleasing favorite. Could the
Weinsteins pull off another late rally upset?
Who will win? “Argo”. Before the nominees were announced, it was assumed the hunt for
this category would be a three horse race between “Argo”, “Les Misérables” and
“Zero Dark Thirty”. When all three of those film’s directors were left off the
Best Director nominations, those assumptions all changed. At that point, it
looked like the Weinstein campaign machine had the field left wide open for
them to come in and clean up the rest of the awards season with “Silver Linings
Playbook”. Then something unprecedented happened, “Argo” went on to sweep every
remaining awards show for both the film and for Ben Affleck as director. With
no opportunity to give Affleck the director award, “Argo” is ensured Best
Picture. Although, had Affleck been included on that list, I still think “Argo”
would’ve taken Best Picture as well as director.
Who would I pick? “Argo”. I know. On my Best of 2012 list I had “Zero Dark Thirty” and
“Beasts of the Southern Wild” listed ahead of “Argo”. Heck, I even had “Life of
Pi” and “Lincoln” listed ahead of it at one point during the list’s creation. My
feelings on this year’s best movies, though, are that they’re all so good, it’s
hard to pick one above the other in anything. Affleck has made three excellent
films out of the three feature films he’s directed. He has an amazing comeback
story. And, the film itself is so good; I can’t help but jump on the bandwagon
here.
Best Director. This is probably the most controversial category in Academy history,
certainly its recent history. Three directors thought to be shoe-ins were left
off the Academy’s list this year. Ben Affleck, for Best Picture front-runner
“Argo”, and past winners Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”), for “Zero Dark
Thirty”, and Tom Hooper (“The King’s Speech”), for “Les Misérables”, were the
last directors anyone expected to be left out of this category. Steven
Spielberg for “Lincoln” and Ang Lee for “Life of Pi” were also expected to get
the nominations they did secure. It was assumed that if by some strange reason
these five weren’t all nominated, Quentin Tarantino, for “Django Unchained”,
and Robert Zemeckis, for “Flight”, would probably be next in line. Instead the
entire field was upset with surprise nominations for Michael Haneke, for
“Amour”, David O. Russell, for “Silver Linings Playbook”, and Bahn Zeitlin, for
the most excellent “Beasts of the Southern Wild”. It’s enough to make an
analyst throw their hands up in the air. Might as well just flip a coin.
Who will win? That’s really tough to say. I’d call this one a two horse race. The
general consensus seems to be Spielberg. But, Spielberg has won the award twice
before, in 1994 for “Schindler’s List” and in 1999 for “Saving Private Ryan”.
The second time it was one of those rare occasions where director went to a
different film than picture. This year that will happen again, but I’m not so
sure Spielberg will be the one to pull it off a second time. Michael Haneke has
been making incredibly high quality films in Europe for well over a decade and
the absence of Affleck’s name from the list could finally allow the Academy a
chance to award him for all those amazing films. Of course, much also depends
on how the Academy will vote on Best Original Screenplay where Haneke is also
nominated. I predict Spielberg will win it by a nose.
Who would I pick? Ben Affleck. I can’t imagine picking someone else. I think his omission
here is the single greatest travesty I’ve ever witnessed committed by the
Academy, and that’s saying something. OK, It may not be as big a travesty as
the Snow White opening number, but it’s close. However, if I must pick someone
that is nominated, I’ll have to say Behn Zeitlin for “Beasts of the Southern
Wild”. “Beasts” is the most original of all the picture nominees and probably
one of the toughest to film due to budget, location, and its fantastical
nature. It’s so good to see this little-picture-that-could recognized during
such a good year for the studios. Zeitlin has pulled off an amazing
accomplishment.
Best Actor.
This is one of two absolute, hands down, sure-fire bets, no-brainers of the
bunch. There is no question in anyone’s mind where this one is going, even for
the other nominees. This one is the ultimate “It’s an honor being nominated”
for the other four. They’re only going to show up to look gracious, but in any
other year all of them but Bradley Cooper would probably have a good shot at
winning. Not to diminish Cooper’s work, but he’s young, he takes risks, he’ll
be here again. Denzel Washington put in the best performance of his career in
“Flight”. That just needs to be said.
Who will win? Daniel Day-Lewis as President Abraham Lincoln in “Lincoln”.
Who would I pick? Daniel Day-Lewis, despite my feelings about Washington. The same can be
said for Day-Lewis.
Best Actress. This one isn’t so clear-cut, or at least, it shouldn’t be. First of all,
kudos to the Academy for recognizing Quvenzhané Wallis and her work in the
wonderful “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and making her the youngest actress
ever to obtain the honor of a nomination in this category. And, congratulations
to Naomi Watts for her nomination here for her work in “The Impossible”. She’s
another good actor who takes risks and will most likely end up with a
nomination again in the future. They are the fringe nominees. This one is
between the sentimental choice of the oldest nominee in the category ever,
Emmanuelle Riva and her work in the surprise contender “Amour”, and the
considerably younger options of Jessica Chastain in “Zero Dark Thirty” and
Jennifer Lawrence in “Silver Linings Playbook”.
Who will win? While I think Chastain was an early favorite, the holiday time spotlight
that shone so bright on “Zero Dark Thirty” burned itself out pretty quickly.
Riva certainly has a chance to steal the award for sentimental reasons as she
did at the BAFTAS, the last major awards before the Oscars. The award will go
to Lawrence, however, due to the significant influence of the Weinstein’s Oscar
winning machine. While Lawrence’s role was probably the least challenging of
the four nominated roles from “Silver Linings Playbook”, the film was a
powerhouse of performances and deserves recognition for that. This category is
the easiest place for that to happen. The omission of Helen Mirren for her work
in “Hitchcock” and the placement of Helen Hunt in the supporting category for
her work in “The Sessions” really help Lawrence’s chances here.
Who would I pick? Jessica Chastain for her brave work breaking gender barriers in the
coldly calculated “Zero Dark Thirty”. Her role as the lead CIA investigator in
charge of finding and capturing Al Qaeda terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden may
seem like a walk in the park for the untrained eye, but her instinct to never
succumb to typical emotional workings and those little tiny flashes underneath
the skin she gives throughout the film demonstrate an incredible understanding
of the material and of the significance that it was that a woman did the job
she portrays in the film.
Best Supporting Actor. This is one of the toughest categories for me to get
a grasp on. It’s another one of those where the quality of the nominees all
seem to be on the same level and where many other names could’ve been included.
I would’ve liked to see John Goodman get a nod with his “Argo” co-star Alan
Arkin, who deserves his nomination just as much. Matthew McConaughey could’ve
been nominated for any number of supporting roles he performed this year.
“Moonrise Kingdom” could’ve produced half of this list with the performances
turned in by Bill Murray, Bruce Willis, and Edward Norton. Plus, all those that
were nominated deserve to be there.
Who will win? General consensus seems to be pointing toward Tommy Lee Jones for his
work as the abolitionist Senator Thaddeus Stevens in “Lincoln”. I’m not sure
why he is the front-runner. Perhaps because of the nature of what his character
stands for as much as for Jones’s performance. I’m inclined to agree with
popular opinion that this is where the statue will end up.
Who would I pick? Robert DeNiro as a father desperately trying to understand his son’s
bipolar disorder in “Silver Linings Playbook”. This is one of the most
sensitive performances I’ve seen from the venerated actor, who all too often is
associated with the more violent and abrasive characters for which he’s become
famous and been awarded for in the past. This is the most human and humane
character DeNiro has played, and he plays it just as impressively as he does
his monsters.
Best Supporting Actress. This is the second absolute, hands down, sure-fire
bet, no-brainer of the bunch. Again the field is filled with amazing career
performances by Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln in “Lincoln”, Helen Hunt as a
sex surrogate (not a prostitute) in “The Sessions”, Jacki Weaver
as a quiet, caring mother in “Sliver Linings Playbook”, and Amy Adams as a
devoted wife and follower to a man with far-reaching theories in “The Master”.
Again in any other year, any of these performances could’ve walked home with
the Oscar gold, just not this year.
Who will win? It is Anne Hathaway’s moment to shine in Oscar’s spotlight for her work
as a destitute mother trying to protect her daughter in “Les Misérables”. This
is the Academy’s chance to award a film that was at one time considered a
front-runner for all the big prizes and their chance to award an actress who is
a favorite among audiences and her contemporaries. And somehow, I think she’ll
just be able to avoid the curse of this award with her sunshiny brightness and
a history of smart project choices.
Who would I pick? While I felt Weaver was the unsung hero of “Silver Linings Playbook”, I’d
still go with Hathaway. I’ve heard many—especially from the musical theater
industry—deride her performance, vocal and otherwise. Even so, I believe her
performance of the song “I Dreamed a Dream” to be the single best performance
of a song in a cinematic musical I’ve seen. It is proof of why a movie about
people bursting into song isn’t an absolutely ridiculous endeavor.
Best Original Screenplay. This category is tied intrinsically with the Best
Director Category. “Flight” and “Moonrise Kingdom” are the two “honored to be
nominated” nominees. The nomination alone is the recognition for the great work
done by John Gatins (for the former) and Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (for
the latter). They’re both award worthy but aren’t really in this race.
Who will win? What’s left is Michael Haneke for “Amour”, Quentin Tarantino for “Django
Unchained”, and Mark Boal for “Zero Dark Thirty”. Again, while the spotlight
shone bright on Boal’s screenplay at first, backlash against the
misinterpretation that it supports torture as a means to extract worthwhile
intelligence will keep it from gaining the prize. While even the Academy cannot
deny the unbridled brilliance of QT as a writer, his extreme use of the N-word
in a film about the touchy subject of this country’s history of slavery will
probably shy many of the older members away from checking his box. That leaves
the opportunity to honor the great (and equally uncomfortable) work of Michael
Haneke as a screenwriter, since Affleck’s absence keeps the director’s race
close, they’ll award Haneke here and Spielberg there.
Who would I pick? Mark Boal’s screenplay for “Zero Dark Thirty” is just as brave as
Chastain’s performance. Abandoning all the rules to tell a very specific story
with a very specific purpose, Boal captures the sacrifice, the lack of reward,
and the utter importance of our intelligence community in his sparse, stark
script.
Best Adapted Screenplay. This is a category representing and eschewing the
unbelievable, the unbearable, and the unfilmable this year. That last
descriptor being proven wrong by the brilliant screenplays adapted this year. “Life
of Pi” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild” could embody every one of those “uns”
I put forth. “Silver Linings Playbook” captures the misunderstood and unbearable
facets of mental illness in a surprisingly functional romantic comedy. While
“Lincoln” and “Argo” capture the unbelievable realities of two important
historical events for our country. Quite an impressive collection of material.
Who will win? While much of the consensus is leaning toward Tony Kushner’s work for
“Lincoln”, I’m thinking the Academy will be satisfied with giving “Lincoln”
three awards. In a year so rich with nominees, they’ll opt to spread the love a
little wider. Not too much, though. I think Chris Terrio’s recent win from the
writer’s guild for his “Argo” screenplay will guide the Academy’s hand and
they’ll award “Argo” a little more for their mistake in leaving Affleck off the
ballot.
Who would I pick? It’s hard to overlook the remarkable story that is Hushpuppy’s in
“Beasts of the Southern Wild”. The tale’s allegory, untraditional storytelling,
and its sheer ability to replicate the mind of a six-year-old and how a child
interprets a confusing world is unmatched by any other screenplay this year. It
is rare to find writers with gifts as palpable as playwright Lucy Alibar and
writer/director Behn Zeitlin display with this screenplay.
Best Animated Feature. It seems the renaissance of the animated movie that
was begun with Pixar’s “Toy Story” in 1995 is finally beginning to fade as this
year’s batch of animated movies, while more numerous than just about any year I
can remember, just didn’t produce the same amount of greatness as they have in
the past. While I was a great fan of “Frankenweenie” and “Wreck-It Ralph”, the
other three films were merely good.
Who will win? This one is “Wreck-It Ralph”s to lose. Coming from the king of animation
studios, Disney (as do two others on this year’s list), the Academy will put
their statues in the hands of the popular favorite.
Who would I pick? “Frankenweenie” was my favorite animated movie this year. Tim Burton’s
beautiful black and white stop motion animation is incredible homage to
everything that influenced him as a kid to turn toward filmmaking. It’s original
and funny and made with a passion not felt by the other candidates. I’ve heard
rumors of a last minute surge in popularity for this choice among Academy
voters. One can only hope.
Best Documentary Feature. For the first time ever, I’ve seen four of the five
nominees for this category before the awards ceremony thanks to the wonders of
Netflix Instant, which made three of the nominees available before they were
available in a physical format. The fourth I rented on Bluray. “The
Gatekeepers” is still in limited theatrical release, and I don’t know much
about it. Recent changes in the nomination process have led to more
accessibility to the potential nominees and a better representation of the best
this field has to offer. This is the strongest field of Documentary Feature
nominees I’ve seen in a given year. The four I’ve seen alternate between
incredibly important issues and incredible stories. “How to Survive a Plague”
tells the story of the men who led the fight to find a workable treatment for
AIDS. “The Invisible War” reveals the shocking number of rape occurrences in
the United States Armed Forces and the despicable practice of covering them up.
“5 Broken Cameras” tells the story of a Palestinian village’s peaceful protests
against the illegal seizure of their farmlands by Israel from a front line
perspective. And, “Searching for Sugar Man” tells of a forgotten Detroit
musician’s unlikely and overwhelming popularity in South Africa.
Who will win? “Searching for Sugar Man” has long been the popular favorite, and I
believe this is where the Academy will award their prize for the sheer
unbelievable story found here and the skillful mastery of the storytelling, not
to mention the incredible music of Rodriguez.
Who would I pick? I have an incredible love for music and I was a fan of Rodriguez even
before I knew his remarkable story from the doc “Searching for Sugar Man”;
however, “How to Survive a Plague” is just as skillfully and artfully handled
by its makers. It tells just as remarkable a story. The two films are every bit
each other’s equals. There is only one quality in which they are unequal—the
importance of their message. However much it is important that the music of
Rodriguez finally be heard and awarded, and however important it is that he
should finally obtain financial gain for his amazing work; one man’s artistic
success can never be as important as the saving of countless lives that the men
and women of ACT UP and TAG achieved with their work and sacrifice to bring
awareness to AIDS research that remarkably led to a real breakthrough. “How to
Survive a Plague” is my pick for Best Documentary.
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